Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Odds of Winning in Every Major Poll This Week

As the 2024 presidential race enters its final stretch, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remain locked in a tight contest, with recent polling reflecting a highly competitive landscape.
With the election just weeks away, each campaign has adopted different strategies to sway voters in these critical regions. Harris’ team has significantly ramped up its media presence, investing heavily in digital and TV ads across key battleground states while conducting solo interviews on mainstream media.
Meanwhile, Trump has scheduled rallies in solidly Democratic states where he has virtually no chance of winning. It’s an unorthodox strategy that campaign advisers say is designed to focus on areas where Democratic policies have failed, with the purpose of attracting media coverage.
Here’s how they performed in major polls this week.
An Ipsos/Reuters poll conducted from October 4 to 7 among 969 likely voters shows Harris with a 3-point lead over Trump, holding 46 percent support compared to Trump’s 43 percent.
Trump trailed 6 points in a similar Ipsos poll from September 20 to 23. The improvement suggests the race is tightening as he seeks to make inroads with key voter groups.
A YouGov/Economist poll conducted between October 6 and 7 with 1,230 likely voters places Harris 4 points ahead, with 49 percent support compared to Trump’s 45 percent. Harris’s support has increased slightly by one percentage point from the previous YouGov survey. Trump’s numbers remained steady at 45 percent, reflecting consistent backing from his base but struggles in reaching beyond it.
A survey by The New York Times/Siena College, conducted from September 29 to October 6 among 3,385 likely voters, shows Harris leading by 3 points, with 49 percent support against Trump’s 46 percent. This is a positive shift for Harris compared to a mid-September poll that had the two candidates tied at 47 percent. This survey is often considered one of the more reliable indicators of national sentiment, highlighting evolving voter dynamics.
The Pew Research Center poll, conducted from September 30 to October 6 with 4,025 registered voters, shows a closer race, with Harris at 48 percent and Trump at 47 percent. This represents a shift from an earlier Pew poll in late August and early September, where both candidates were tied at 49 percent. The change suggests that Harris has made gains among some undecided voters as the campaign enters its final phase.
Despite trailing in every poll, this week brought encouraging signs for Trump. He received a boost from pollster Nate Silver, who suggested that the former president should feel more optimistic about the race.
Silver’s analysis showed that Trump was gaining slight ground against Harris. His Silver Bulletin presidential model, which tracks polling data and electoral trends, shifted 0.3 percentage points in favor of Trump over the past week, signaling a more competitive race as the campaigns head into the final stretch.
The updated forecast reflects small but significant gains for Trump in key swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. These states, pivotal to Trump’s 2016 win and his loss in 2020, are once again likely to determine the outcome of the presidential election.